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Ello es importante para que el lector no economista sepa lo que tiene entre. He was 2. 8, and he was up more than 7. Now that was under threat. Not only did Hayes have to extract himself from every deal he had done with Lehman, he had also made a series of enormous bets that in the coming days interest rates would remain stable. The collapse of Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the US, would surely cause those rates, which were really just barometers of risk, to spike. As Hayes examined his trading book, one rate mattered more than any other the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, a benchmark that influences 3. For traders such as Hayes, this number was the Holy Grail. And two years earlier, he had discovered a way to rig it. Libor was set by a self selected, self policing committee of the worlds largest banks. The rate measured how much it cost them to borrow from each other. JPY Japanese Yen Latest News, Analysis and Forex. httpswww. dailyfx. comjpy Latest JPY market news, analysis and Japanese Yen trading forecast from leading. Issuu is a digital publishing platform that makes it simple to publish magazines, catalogs, newspapers, books, and more online. Easily share your publications and get. La Crisis Financiera estadounidense del 2008, aquel infarto al sistema global ciertamente comparado con la Gran Depresin de los 30s, es vista como. Every morning, each bank submitted an estimate, an average was taken, and a number was published at midday. The process was repeated in different currencies, and for various amounts of time, ranging from overnight to a year. During his time as a junior trader in London, Hayes had got to know several of the 1. Japanese yen. His flash of insight was realising that these men mostly relied on inter dealer brokers, the fast talking middlemen involved in every trade, for guidance on what to submit each day. Brokers are the middlemen in the world of finance, facilitating deals between traders at different banks in everything from Treasury bonds to over the counter derivatives. If a trader wants to buy or sell, he could theoretically ring all the banks to get a price. Or he could go through a broker who is in touch with everyone and can find a counter party in seconds. Hardly a dollar changes hands in the cash and derivatives markets without a broker matching the deal and taking his cut. In the opaque, over the counter derivatives market, where there is no centralised exchange, brokers are at the epicentre of information flow. That puts them in a powerful position. Only they can get a picture of what all the banks are doing. While brokers had no official role in setting Libor, the rate setters at the banks relied on them for information on where cash was trading. Most traders looked down on brokers as second class citizens, too. Hayes recognised their worth. He saw what no one else did because he was different. His intimacy with numbers, his cold embrace of risk and his unusual habits were more than professional tics. Hayes would not be diagnosed with Aspergers syndrome until 2. Hayes that he wasnt like them. They called him Rain Man. By the time the market opened in London, Lehmans demise was official. Hayes instant messaged one of his trusted brokers in the City to tell him what direction he wanted Libor to move. Typically, he skipped any pleasantries. Cash mate, really need it lower, Hayes typed. Whats the score The broker sent his assurances and, over the next few hours, followed a well worn routine. Whenever one of the Libor setting banks called and asked his opinion on what the benchmark would do, the broker said incredibly, given the calamitous news that the rate was likely to fall. Libor may have featured in hundreds of trillions of dollars of loans and derivatives, but this was how it was set conversations among men who were, depending on the day, indifferent, optimistic or frightened. When Hayes checked the official figures later that night, he saw to his relief that yen Libor had fallen. Hayes was not out of danger yet. Over the next three days, he barely left the office, surviving on three hours of sleep a night. As the market convulsed, his profit and loss jumped around from minus 2. Hayes had another ace up his sleeve. ICAP, the worlds biggest inter dealer broker, sent out a Libor prediction email each day at around 7am to the individuals at the banks responsible for submitting Libor. Hayes messaged an insider at ICAP and instructed him to skew the predictions lower. Amid the chaos, Libor was the one thing Hayes believed he had some control over. He cranked his network to the max, offering his brokers extra payments for their cooperation and calling in favours at banks around the world. By Thursday, 1. 8 September, Hayes was exhausted. This was the moment he had been working towards all week. If Libor jumped today, all his puppeteering would have been for nothing. Libor moves in increments called basis points, equal to one one hundredth of a percentage point, and every tick was worth roughly 7. For the umpteenth time since Lehman faltered, Hayes reached out to his brokers in London. I need you to keep it as low as possible, all right he told one of them in a message. Ill pay you, you know, 5. Whatever you want, all rightAll right, the broker repeated. Im a man of my word, Hayes said. I know you are. No, thats done, right, leave it to me, the broker said. Hayes was still in the Tokyo office at 8pm when that days Libors were published. The yen rate had fallen 1 basis point, while comparable money market rates in other currencies continued to soar. Hayess crisis had been averted. Using his network of brokers, he had personally sought to tilt part of the planets financial infrastructure. He pulled off his headset and headed home to bed. He had only recently upgraded from the superhero duvet hed slept under since he was eight years old. Hayess job was to make his employer as much money as possible by buying and selling derivatives. How exactly he did that the special concoction of strategies, skills and tricks that make up a traders DNA was largely left up to him. First and foremost he was a market maker, providing liquidity to his clients, who were mostly traders at other banks. From the minute he logged on to his Bloomberg terminal each morning and the red light next to his name turned green, Hayes was on the phone quoting guaranteed bid and offer prices on the vast inventory of products he traded. Hayes prided himself on always being open for business no matter how choppy the markets. It was his calling card. Hayes likened this part of his job to owning a fruit and vegetable stall. Buy low, sell high and pocket the difference. |
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